Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation
25% Chance
A sharper escalation remains a material risk given Iran's prior threats to vessels in Hormuz and the existing tanker shortage. Even without a formal blockade, harassment, seizures, mines, or missile risks could push refiners and shipowners to pause loadings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.