Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Back-channel diplomacy involving Oman, Qatar, Washington, and Tehran could reduce the near-term probability of vessel attacks. If naval protection and diplomatic signals arrive together, the oil-risk premium can fall quickly even while underlying regional tensions remain unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
- Consumer Services +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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