Possible scenario
Guardrails Slow Adoption
20% Chance
Regulators permit the framework but impose conservative investor-protection measures after reviewing Terra-Luna, Musicow, and retail mis-selling risks. The policy still advances, but market expectations for near-term transaction volumes are reduced.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.