Possible scenario
Threat Becomes Bargaining
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Trump uses the NATO threat as leverage over European migration policy rather than beginning an actual withdrawal. Congressional restrictions, Pentagon resistance, and allied defense-spending increases give the administration room to claim concessions without breaking the alliance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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