Possible scenario
Conditional Pressure Campaign
25% Chance
Trump does not immediately move to quit NATO, but he makes US participation conditional on European immigration concessions. This creates a rolling diplomatic standoff, with NATO members trying to preserve defense cooperation while avoiding an open fight over migration.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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