Possible scenario
Fiscal Obstacles Delay Scheme
20% Chance
The fiscal treatment of guarantees, loss-sharing, or equity support becomes the main obstacle. If the OBR or Treasury classifies the scheme as a material public liability, rollout slows and investors trim expectations for a near-term housing demand boost.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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