Possible scenario
Affordability Backlash Builds
24% Chance
Housing economists, opposition MPs, and the Bank of England argue that the policy risks pushing up entry-level prices without increasing supply. The government keeps the scheme alive but faces pressure to tighten caps, attach supply targets, or restrict developer participation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.