Possible scenario
Agency Rules Advance
40% Chance
The White House leans on the March 2026 SEC-CFTC taxonomy and the CFTC's post-Senate rulemaking to create a de facto market-structure framework without new legislation. This is the most likely path because agencies can move faster than Congress, especially where Bitcoin and Ether are already classified as non-security digital commodities.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.4%
- Technology +0.7%
Tickers
- COIN+7.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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