Possible scenario
State Backstop Expands
20% Chance
If liquidated assets are not immediately sufficient, Ankara may use temporary financing or public-sector coordination to accelerate investor compensation. This would calm depositors and retail investors but raise questions about fiscal cost and moral hazard.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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