Possible scenario
Payments Stabilize Investors
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that interim payments reduce immediate anger among affected retail and institutional investors while the liquidation board continues asset sales. Ankara uses the payments to show control of the $18.3 billion scandal without admitting a full state guarantee.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.