Possible scenario
RN Wins Constrained Presidency
33% Chance
Marine Le Pen remains eligible after the 2026 appeals ruling and wins the 2027 runoff, but institutional constraints limit the immediate policy break. The Muslim emigration poll becomes part of a broader debate over secularism, citizenship, and labor-market cohesion, but markets treat the risk as political rather than systemic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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