Possible scenario
Reliability Incident Escalates
18% Chance
A less likely but material downside path is that infrastructure strain turns into a visible service reliability incident. Extended outages, refunds, or data-handling issues would shift the story from explosive demand to execution risk.
Tickers
- FIGR-8.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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