Possible scenario
Political Rupture Widens
20% Chance
The intelligence dispute becomes entangled with Kyiv's criticism of U.S. sanctions relief for Russian diesel, worsening trust between Zelensky's government and the Trump administration. This would raise concerns that Ukraine support is becoming more conditional and politically volatile.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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