Possible scenario
Wider Escalation Risk
15% Chance
A less likely but market-relevant path is that the energy campaign produces a cross-border incident or targets infrastructure closer to NATO territory. Such an outcome would not necessarily mean NATO-Russia conflict, but it would raise short-term risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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