Possible scenario
Sustained Winter Campaign
30% Chance
Russia follows the Kyiv-region strike with additional missile and drone attacks on generation, substations, and transmission lines. This would fit the established pattern of pressure on Ukraine’s energy system before winter, but still falls short of a direct NATO escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.