Possible scenario
Sanctions Stalemate
28% Chance
The UN chief's assessment softens the rhetoric but does not resolve the legal and technical disputes created by the European snapback and Iran's refusal to comply. Sanctions remain formally in place, while China and Russia argue that the latest UN language weakens the case for escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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