Possible scenario
Evidence Reignites Concern
20% Chance
A later IAEA update emphasizes that enriched uranium remains unaccounted for or inaccessible, undercutting the political value of the UN chief's assurance. This keeps the dispute in a high-friction but nonmilitary phase, with renewed attention on inspection access and sanctions enforcement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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