Possible scenario
Diplomacy Revives
42% Chance
The UN chief's statement gives diplomatic cover for the United States, EU3, Iran, and the IAEA to reopen a limited channel focused on inspections and uranium accounting. This is the most likely path because the March 2026 IAEA finding of no structured weapons program supports a monitoring-first approach, even though buried enriched uranium remains unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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