Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
38% Chance
The Modi government partially accommodates UN and domestic pressure by releasing most nonviolent detainees and allowing monitored demonstrations. This is the most likely path because it lowers international scrutiny while preserving the Election Commission's re-registration process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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