Possible scenario
Crackdown Intensifies
25% Chance
The government rejects the UN demand as interference and gives police broader authority to restrict assemblies and communications. This scenario becomes likely if opposition parties mobilize larger protests around voter deletions and local authorities fear loss of control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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