Possible scenario
Court-Led Roll Review
27% Chance
India's Supreme Court becomes the main institutional release valve, taking up petitions challenging the voter re-registration drive and detentions. A judicial process gives both the government and opposition a way to pause street escalation without either side formally conceding.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.