Possible scenario
Street Tensions Rise
25% Chance
The exchange fuels competing demonstrations around Midtown, the United Nations, and Jewish institutions. Most activity remains peaceful, but the city faces higher policing costs, traffic disruption, and renewed concern over antisemitic incidents.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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