Possible scenario
Narrative Enters Campaign
27% Chance
Russian-linked narratives around Israel, Gaza and antisemitism are amplified by partisan influencers and some campaign surrogates. The operation does not alter voting infrastructure, but it increases uncertainty in several close races before the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.