Possible scenario
Trump Prevails Initially
20% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that the court gives the executive branch wider discretion over program administration or finds the plaintiffs lack sufficient grounds for immediate relief. The GAO opinion is influential but not automatically binding on the court.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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