Possible scenario
Support Falls Short
30% Chance
The deal is real but insufficient relative to Ukraine's defensive needs after Russia's renewed campaign against Kyiv. Bottlenecks in European inventories, U.S. stockpile management, and interceptor production leave Ukraine exposed to further strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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