Possible scenario
Russia Escalates Strikes
20% Chance
Russia responds to the Patriot announcement by trying to destroy launchers, radars, and logistics routes before the new systems can materially improve Ukraine's defenses. This would raise near-term geopolitical risk but would still likely remain below a direct NATO-Russia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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