Possible scenario
Insurance Freeze Deepens
25% Chance
The crisis becomes primarily a shipping and insurance shock rather than an immediate great-power military confrontation. Tanker owners, charterers, and insurers refuse or ration Hormuz voyages, reducing effective export capacity even without every ship being blocked.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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