Possible scenario
Diplomacy Reopens Route
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China push a narrow maritime de-escalation deal focused on tanker safety rather than the wider U.S.-Iran dispute. This outcome is plausible because all sides face heavy costs from a full export halt and Tehran may want leverage without uncontrolled escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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