Possible scenario
Rule Adopted Mostly
40% Chance
The Coast Guard largely finalizes the proposal, arguing that the courses duplicate existing credentialing, simulator, or sea-service requirements. This is the most likely path because it fits the broader federal cost-cutting push while offering a modest answer to the U.S. mariner shortage.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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