Sectarian Retaliation Cycle

The bus attack becomes a trigger for renewed sectarian violence in mixed areas and along routes linking Homs, Tartus, and Latakia. Given the prior pattern of kidnappings, coastal killings, and U.N. findings of abuses by government allies, a retaliatory spiral is a credible downside path.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.