Possible scenario
Heavy Government Crackdown
18% Chance
The post-Assad government responds with raids, curfews, and arrests across Homs province, arguing that hard security measures are needed to prevent sectarian escalation. This may suppress immediate violence but risks repeating patterns documented by the U.N. in which government-aligned forces harmed civilians.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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