Possible scenario
Severe Metro Damage
20% Chance
A closer track and high tide produce a damaging surge in New York Harbor, with flooding in lower Manhattan, Brooklyn, Staten Island, Hoboken, and parts of Long Island. Losses become meaningful for insurers, utilities, real estate owners, and local transportation operators.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Utilities -1.5%
- Finance -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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