Possible scenario
Credit Pullback Deepens
25% Chance
The BoE warning triggers a broader reassessment of AI-linked leverage, especially where data-center projects depend on aggressive demand assumptions or sponsor guarantees. New issuance becomes more expensive and some borrowers delay deals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.8%
- Finance -1.8%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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