Possible scenario
Iran Intensifies Disruption
30% Chance
Iran continues using limited strikes, seizures, drones, or mines to raise shipping costs while avoiding an explicit declaration that the Strait is closed. This path is plausible because Tehran has already escalated from threats to repeated tanker hits and may see controlled disruption as leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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