Possible scenario
Escorted Containment
35% Chance
Washington expands escorts and air cover around commercial shipping while trying to avoid a direct strike on Iranian territory. This is the most likely near-term path because the Roosevelt carrier deployment gives the U.S. a deterrent tool without requiring immediate escalation to open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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