Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, or the United Nations brokers a pause in attacks tied to inspections, prisoner issues, or a narrow maritime understanding. This is less likely than continued military signaling, but both Tehran and Washington still have incentives to avoid an uncontrolled oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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