Possible scenario
Risk Premium Persists
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Gulf export disruptions remain serious but do not worsen into a full regional war. OPEC+ keeps quotas frozen, a fresh U.S. SPR release remains politically difficult, and traders continue to price a durable supply-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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