Possible scenario
Relief Corridor Emerges
25% Chance
A diplomatic and naval workaround reduces the immediate fear that Gulf barrels will remain trapped. Prices retreat from the $100 level as traders reassess the probability of a deeper supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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