Possible scenario
Negotiated Compliance
45% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani secures phased compliance from major Iran-aligned factions through budget incentives, security-service integration, and guarantees that commanders retain political influence. This is the most likely path because the factions have already suspended operations and may prefer preserving influence inside state institutions after the U.S. withdrawal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- TTE+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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