Possible scenario
Limited Armed Defiance
20% Chance
Hardline factions refuse to surrender medium and heavy weapons, while the Iraqi state attempts targeted arrests or depot inspections. Violence remains localized, but the risk premium on Iraqi stability and oil infrastructure rises modestly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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