Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Digestion
45% Chance
Investors treat the 3.1% coupon as a delayed normalization of Japanese rates rather than a funding shock. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's issuance cap and the Bank of Japan's gradual tightening path keep demand for 10-year JGBs broadly intact.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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