Possible scenario
Fiscal Credibility Tested
20% Chance
Higher coupons intensify scrutiny of Japan's debt-service burden even after the government's pledge to cap annual bond issuance. Investors focus on whether the Ministry of Finance can stabilize supply without forcing the BOJ into a credibility trade-off.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Utilities -0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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