Possible scenario
Delayed Fragmented Deal
30% Chance
A substantial bloc supports more Ukraine aid, but disputes over common borrowing, national deficits, and burden sharing prevent a clean Council agreement. Kyiv receives political support but no immediate full financing path, increasing pressure for bilateral stopgaps.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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