Possible scenario
Limited Naval Clash
28% Chance
A tactical encounter escalates into a brief naval exchange, but both sides stop short of targeting population centers or major energy infrastructure. The probability is meaningful because the timeline already includes U.S. strikes, Iranian missile launches, and repeated close-quarters incidents.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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