Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
18% Chance
Regional mediators use the latest warning-shot incident to press for a narrow maritime deconfliction arrangement. This is less likely than continued harassment, but Iran and the U.S. both have incentives to avoid a full interruption of Gulf energy exports.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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