Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Harassment
42% Chance
Iran continues coercive signaling in the Strait of Hormuz but avoids confirmed hits on commercial vessels or U.S. ships. This is the most likely path because Tehran can sustain pressure on oil flows while limiting the risk of another large U.S. strike on Iranian naval assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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