Possible scenario
Orderly Crude Sale
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the United States completes transport, storage, and sale of the seized Iranian crude through established sanctions-enforcement channels. Tehran condemns the move but avoids a direct kinetic response while monitoring whether Washington repeats the tactic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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