Possible scenario
Domestic Political Crisis
18% Chance
The main fallout shifts from Madrid-Rabat relations to Spanish domestic politics after Sánchez admitted concealing the Moroccan naval breach. The opposition frames the issue as a sovereignty and transparency failure, but the government likely survives because its parliamentary partners avoid triggering an early election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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