Possible scenario
Regulatory Guardrails Tighten
25% Chance
Regulators allow the pilot to continue but move quickly to define boundaries around tokenized securities collateral, margin lending, and retail access. The most likely intervention is tighter eligibility, disclosure, and leverage limits rather than an outright ban.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- -4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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