Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Regional pressure from China, Qatar, and possibly Saudi Arabia pushes Islamabad and Kabul toward deconfliction despite public accusations. Pakistan continues counterterrorism operations but avoids new strikes while demanding Afghan action against TTP sanctuaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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